Report: Canada has enough gas for 80 years

National Energy Board report estimates 501 tcf of ultimate potential, but warns against any slackening of drilling effort

Gary Park

Petroleum News Calgary Correspondent

Canada has 501 trillion cubic feet of ultimate natural gas potential, more than 80 years of supplies at current rates of production, the National Energy Board has reported.

But turning the 286 trillion cubic feet rated as undiscovered into the discovered category will need an all-out drilling effort.

For Alberta alone, the challenge is to continue the frenzied pace of drilling that saw 80,000 gas wells completed in the 1990s.

“There will continue to be a need for the very high drilling levels experienced over the past few years in order to maintain current production levels,” the federal regulator said in its updated status report, noting that the bulk of undiscovered resources will be found in high-decline shallow pools.

Spokesmen for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers and the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors were encouraged by the findings, suggesting the trends provide a counter-weight to those who believe the Western Canada sedimentary basin in particular is on an irreversible slide.

Of Alberta’s preliminary ultimate gas resource of 207 tcf, the board estimates that 156 tcf is discovered, or confirmed by drilling, and 61 tcf remains undiscovered.

Its projected resource for Alberta is marginally higher than the 200 tcf estimate by the province’s Energy and Utilities Board in 1992 and the Canadian Gas Potential Committee’s 203 tcf in 2001.

More complete Alberta estimate under way

Despite the 80,000 wells last decade, the federal board said there was no significant gain in gas resources. The major change came from switching resources from the undiscovered category to discovered.

For all of Canada, the report said one third of the estimated 286 tcf of undiscovered resources will be found in the Western Canada sedimentary Basin, which sprawls over most of the Northwest Territories and Alberta and stretches from the northeastern corner of British Columbia into Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The Western Canada sedimentary basin contributes more than 90 percent of Canada’s gas volumes and meets 23 percent of North America’s needs.

The NEB estimates the basin has 178 tcf of discovered gas and 96 tcf undiscovered.

The board believes that only 2.5 tcf, or 4 percent of the total undiscovered resources are inaccessible, although another 1.5 tcf call fall into that category if undiscovered sweet gas in the path of expanding cities is not quickly developed.

Of the regional breakdown, the report said:

• The Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea region has 9 tcf of discovered and 52 tcf of undiscovered gas, while the more remote Arctic Islands has 12 tcf discovered and 28 tcf undiscovered.

• For British Columbia, 15 tcf of gas had been produced by the end of 2002 and 35 tcf was undiscovered, but a more complete assessment is scheduled for 2005 if the board and the B.C. Ministry of Energy and Mines conduct a joint study.

• Estimates for the East Coast offshore put discovered resources at 14 tcf and undiscovered at 77 tcf, including 5 tcf and 23 tcf, respectively, for the Labrador Shelf, 4 tcf and 13 tcf for the Grand Banks and 5 tcf and 18 tcf for Nova Scotia.

The East Newfoundland/Orphan basin between the Grand Banks and Labrador has only 12 tcf of undiscovered potential, but that could change following a 2003 land sale when Chevron Canada Resources, ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil made combined work commitments of C$673 million for eight properties in the Orphan basin.