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State sees jobs increasing by 5,300 in '25
Overall job count in 2024 reached pre-pandemic level, but some industries, particularly oil and gas, still lagged 2019 levels
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
Jobs in Alaska are projected to increase in 2025, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development said in its January edition of Alaska Economic Trends, with 1.6% growth, 5,300 jobs, forecast for the year.
Economist Karinne Wiebold, author of the article on statewide trends, said the expected growth is led by "construction, health care, transportation, and the oil and gas industry."
Jobs in oil and gas have increased by 1,400 since the industry hit a low of 6,700 in 2021, Wiebold said, with growth expected at a faster pace in 2025, up 600 jobs to 8,700, 7.4%, on increased activity, but have lagged in recovery from the industry's pre-pandemic level, when oil and gas jobs in the state averaged 9,900. At 8,700 projected for 2025, the industry is still down 12.1% compared to the pre-pandemic numbers.
Oil and gas industry A table in Trends shows oil and gas jobs averaging 7,600 in 2023, increasing 6.6% to 8,100 in 2024, an increase of 500 jobs.
Wiebold said oil and gas "employment dropped drastically during the pandemic but production remained remarkably stable. After several years of that unusual balance, job growth resumed, but in 2024, total employment remained about 1,800 below 2019 levels."
Pikka and Willow, both under construction, haven't yet generated many industry jobs, Wiebold said, "but are bolstering employment in construction, transportation, and even manufacturing and wholesale."
Pikka production is expected to begin next year, Willow in 2029.
Those developments are among the positives in the 2025 employment picture, along with expected growth in cruise ship passengers. Wiebold said while those conditions aren't new, "they have driven job gains for the last year or two and continue to boost economic activity in the state."
What's driving the numbers On the negative side, she said: "Alaska also faces several constraints. The labor shortage, ongoing state budget issues, looming federal job and budget cuts, and seafood industry tumult all have the potential to weigh on the economy this year."
The labor shortage is related to out-migration, with the state losing more people than it gained for 12 consecutive years. And the population is aging, with the large numbers who moved to Alaska in the last 1970s and early 1980s reaching retirement age. The state's birth rate has been falling for decades, and while it still remains higher than most states, Wiebold said, there are fewer young people moving into working years, with the number from 18 to 64 down 34,000 between 2013 and 2023, and that decline expected to continue through 2030.
The number of nonresidents working in the state -- providing specialized expertise and filling seasonal jobs -- reached a proportional high in 2023 compared to the previous 20-some years, Wiebold said.
"Large infrastructure and oil and gas projects will continue in 2025," she said, with Phase 1 Pikka construction wrapping this year while Willow construction will continue as will federally funded infrastructure projects, although those are harder to track.
Major trends Infrastructure spending and North Slope projects benefit construction, professional and business services and the transportation sector, Wiebold said.
On the construction side, demand for workers creates upward pressure on wages and nonresident workers, with construction up 2,000 jobs in 2024 and forecast to add another 1,500 in 2025, up 7.9% this year on top of the 11.7% increase in 2024, with construction jobs forecast to average 20,600 this year.
"Professional and business services, which includes architecture and engineering, tends to move with construction," Wiebold said, and after adding 900 jobs last year is forecast to add 700 this year.
Another key industry, transportation, added 1,100 jobs last year and is expected to add another 1,000 this year.
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