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State forecasts growth in oil & gas jobs
January's Alaska Economic Trends says industry jobs up 400 in 2023 to average 7,400, expected to gain 600 to average 8,000 in 2024
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The January issue of Alaska Economic Trends, put out by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's Research and Analysis Section, is forecasting 1.7% growth in the state's jobs in 2024, an increase of 5,400, but, economist Karinne Wiebold said in the overall state forecast, not all industries in the state have recovered to their pre-COVID 19 pandemic levels.
The oil and gas sector, which gained 400 jobs in 2023 and is forecast to gain another 600 this year, to average 8,000, is still down 1,900 jobs, 19.2%, from 9,900 in 2019.
"COVID was the largest shock our economy has ever absorbed, with steeper losses in a shorter time frame than Alaska has weathered before," Wiebold said, down 27,600 jobs. Each year since 2019 the state has recovered jobs, she said, but by 2023 the easiest gains had occurred, and recovery slowed.
Oil and gas The oil and gas industry is expected to gain 600 jobs in 2024, Wiebold said, but this comes after a loss of 3,200 jobs in the first two years after the pandemic, "on top of its declines in the immediately preceding state recession when the industry shed 5,400 jobs." By 2021, jobs in the industry were less than half of those in 2014 and recovery has been slow, with the industry gaining just 200 jobs in 2022, followed by 300 last year.
This year's gain of 600 jobs is driven by preparation for Pikka and Willow, with other employment in the early phase of the projects in construction, transportation, and professional and business, Wiebold said.
Construction, which lost 600 jobs due to COVID, "has recovered and grown at an accelerating pace, adding 100 jobs in 2021, 200 in 2022, and 600 in 2023," she said, with 2024 expected to see the addition of another 1,100. That would bring construction employment to 1,400 more than the pre-pandemic average.
Construction work comes from both federal infrastructure money and from oil field work, particularly at Pikka and Willow.
Professional and business services will benefit from supporting oil and construction work, with 600 new jobs forecast, which would push that sector "above pre-pandemic levels," Wiebold said.
Anchorage Wiebold said Anchorage is expected to add some 2,300 jobs in 2024, with increased oil activity being one factor. The municipality had no gain in oil and gas jobs between 2022 and 2023, averaging 1,500 in both years, but is expected to gain 100 sector jobs in 2024.
The oil and gas impact on Anchorage is because it is the in-state headquarters of most companies working in the sector, she said, but those gains will not make up for long-term Anchorage oil and gas sector job losses, such as those caused when Hilcorp bought out BP's interests in Alaska, since Hilcorp "operates a much leaner workforce and has headquarters in Texas."
Anchorage's oil and gas industry is 40% smaller, down 1,000 jobs, than it was in 2019.
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